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Who Is The Favourite To Win This Season’s Premier League?

160px-Premier_League_svgThe football season has just passed its quarter mark and the final international break of the year has ended, so in many ways it is a new start. At least we can assess what has happened so far and make some predictions regarding what will happen next. If the mention of the words Bayesian statistics sends a shiver down your spine then skip to the final paragraph for some alternative ways of football betting, but if not you might be interested in the results of a Bayesian analysis that has been carried out on the season so far in order to assess the probabilities of the favourite clubs winning the Premiership.

There isn’t room to explain how these figures were derived, and we suspect that if we did give it you wouldn’t bother reading it anyway, so we will just skip to the results. Let’s just say though that these figures are based on an aggregation of all of the main football indices along with average betting odds. The list below gives the current probabilities of the various clubs winning the premiership along with their priors, which is their probabilities of them winning before the season got underway.

  1. Arsenal: Current probability of winning the Premiership = 29.6%, pre-season probability 10.9%
  2. Chelsea: Current probability of winning the Premiership = 22.1%, pre-season probability 24.8%
  3. Manchester City: Current probability of winning the Premiership = 18.9%, pre-season probability 23.3%
  4. Manchester United: Current probability of winning the Premiership = 18.7%, pre-season probability 28.1%

The message couldn’t be clearer: forget about casino type bets, bet on Arsenal and Chelsea.

Serge Gnabry - a key member of Arsenal's title challenge?

Serge Gnabry – a key member of Arsenal’s title challenge?

If you arrived here directly from the first paragraph, don’t worry, there are plenty of other ways of making money from gambling. You can play the best online casino games in the UK at JackpotCity.co.uk. One that you might like to try is that amazing slot game called Soccer Safari. It was developed by Microgaming which always makes the best slots. It is one of their 30 pay lone five-reelers, but with a difference. All the characters are football playing wild animals from the African Jungle. It might sound a little strange, but it is based on the 2010 World Cup, which might make it sound even more bizarre, best thing is to log on to your usual online casino and have a few spins.

About Tom Bennett

I'm a 21-year-old Multimedia Journalism student at Bournemouth University aspiring to be one of Britain's top sports journalists. Follow me on Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn for contact and further information.


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